Center for National and International Studies
The FB users actively share and comment on Turkey, Russia, NATO relations in Syria, post-election situation, repressions of activists, journalists and opposition politicians, proposal of the government of the dialogue with opposition, continue discussion over friction and arguments among opposition.
Yadigar Sadykhli puts the current Russia Turkey relations in the historical context and shows that from this point of view their rapprochement was rather unnatural. The reason behind it is the worsening relations of Erdogan with the West due to his authoritarian rule. While the West Is not ideal, but alliance with Russia was not at all in the interests of Turkey, and in addition, it had a negative influence on the democratization and human rights in Azerbaijan”.
Seynur Hezi writes: “ The US expressed its first support for Turkey. I wonder what will the governments who meet annually, calling themselves the Turkic states, do now?”
Ali Kerimli of PFP writes about Idlib and the Turkey’s advantage over Russia in terms of modern weapons. He regrets about billion of petro-dollars of Azerbaijan spent on outdated weapons of Russia. He considers that a true hero of the victory in Idlib was SIHA – Bayraktar TB2. And Ukraine is probably happy that they acquired these weapons.
Ali Inglabci speaks critically of Erdogan: “ You have called Azerbaijan a brother, but has never been by him. You have always supported the dictator. You never said, I will support you in Karabagh, but you said, give me the oil.. What have you lost in Syria?”…Before his son, or other relative dies in the battle, he will never understand what do the parents of victim feel. Where there is a dictator, there will not be an empathy and our country is the proof of it”
Natig Jafarli of REAL analyses and explains the events in Turkey by the one man regime, which failed to establish strong insitutuons and the policy responding to the country’s interests. Hence, resulting populism led to the current critical situation. Because of the mistaken policies of Turkey during the last few years, it fell under dependence on Russia in a few fields, among them 65% of gas supply comes from Russia, 30% of toursim dependson Russia, half of the agricultural export is to Russia, Russia is building nuclear power station in Turkey, and now there is even the ceratin dependence in the military sphere. This comes in contradiction with the interests of the West, which has 57% exports of Turkey. And also, historically Azerbaijan has always lost from the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia.
Tofg Yagublu also comments, that “ in fact, Turkish soldier is not supposed to fight beyond its borders , except probably for Karabagh”. He reports that NATO representative Hutchison expressed past and future support for Turkey, so the latter should tell the ally from the foe.”
Rabiyya Mammadova writes about the desperate situation, which policy of Erdogan led the country to. On the one hand, NATO will not be able to defend Turkish troops, as Idlib is not Turkey’s territory, on the other hand, when Turkey tried to get the bodies of the 30 victims, Russia refused.
Ilkin Rustamzade comments that Erdogan has conducted the most humiliating action in the history of Turkey.The Turkish brownnosing media and official TV channels were denying that Turkish solideirs were killed by Russia, while directing the responding “attack” against the West. By opening borders and letting the refugees flee to the West, he is blackmailing the West, who wants to help him. Just before that two military Russian ship Admilral Makarovich and Admiral Grigorov went through the straignts without any obstacles. Although according to the Montreau agreement he was obliged to close them. And there are still people in Azerbaijan , who support this treacherous policy, he comments. He sees two scenarios only for Turkey under the current conditions: 1. He either fully accepts humiliation by Russia, will suppress domestic media voices and will continue the policy of nostalgia for the Ottomam sultanate.
- Or Erdogan will leave the post, and Turkey will return to the path of the EU and NATO, and will restore its status of the regional superpower.
Nurlan Libre suggests that if there were free and fair elections Bakhtiyar Hadjiyev would win over president Aliyev. Seymur Hezi comments on the authorities inaction , that while the whole world is busy with protection of their population, they are targeting opposition and preparing provocations against the PFP. The latter is about the appointment of the public meeting just in front of the house if the PFP leader Ali Kerimli by the radical group of pro-government Fedayis Fuad Muradov.
Altay Geyushov generalizes about the political system in the country: “ The Azerbaijanis live in the system which transforms people into Ata Abdullayevs” ( the notorious pro-government figure, who was ridiculed all over FB-L.A).
He also comments about the fear of the government: “ Why did the government sack me from the University job? Because they are afraid of people turning into a citizens”.
Taleh Khasmammadov comments of reshuffling of the cadres in the region. He reports that Yusif Khalilov, the head of the department of the struggle with drugs trafficking, who was planting drugs to people’s pockets and who unfairly condemned Taleh himself, was first sacked from job, but then after he gave a bag of money was given the job again, but this time not in Goychay, but in Agdash.
The political activists continue to argue and comment on rivals in the opposition camp.
Arif Mammadov, former diplomat, and activist in exile informs about the continued pressure on the opposition activist Gultakin Hajibeyli. He writes on his timeline:” Recently, one of the main targets of the regime’s dirty attacks in Azerbaijan, of all its repressive apparatus and structures is a bold, independent, intelligent woman, a member of the National Council Gultakin Hajibeyli. The regime imposes an arrest on her apartment, fine of 85,000 ₼, confiscates her personal car, does not allow her only son to leave the country.The attack is conducted in all levels and directions. I demand to immediately stop all repressions against Gultekin Hajibeyli, to close all falsified cases against her, her relatives and loved ones”. Tofig Yagublu, Gozel Bayramli, and others also posted appeals in defense of Hajibeyli.
FB users widely discuss the suggestion of the government to conduct a dialogue with opposition at the level of the head of the department of the presidential administration, Edalet Veliyev.
Natig Jafarli of REAL speculates on elections and its results, proposal of dialogue. He reminds that those , including themselves, who decided to participate in the elections believed in the optimistic scenario, that if the parliament had 10-15 young and independent thinking people it would be possible to implement all reforms. However, he suggests that the president’s team was weak versus experienced old guards and he was defeated. Because on eof his greatest mistakes was that allowed to be surrounded by people, who were enriching and strengthening themselves. He considers that the main battle should be within the system and the recent proposal of a dialogue is one way to resolve it.
Arif Mammadov, a diplomat in exile, mentions with irony, that “some politicians are so inspired when they are received by the head of the department of the presidential administration, as if they were received by the Queen personally at the Buckingham palace”.
Some FB users mention Ilgar Mammadov of REAL, accusing him of being “sold off “ to the government. Hikmet Hajizade, opposition politician of Musavat, posts a link to the article by ASTNA with the interview with Ilgar Mammadov about his communication with Council of Europe with his comment:” Ilgar Mammadov was not sold off or else, here is his true intentions”. The article reveals, that Ilgar Mammadov has been submitting the documents for starting the procedure of exclusion of Azerbaijan from the Council of Europe
Altay Geyushov compares Aliyev with Bashar Asad- that both came to replace their fathers, both families have been 50 years in power, both are viewing power not as means, but as highest goal, both are dictators. Both are ready to sacrifice their countries. “Somebody said, that here is not Syria, but everyone who can think, understands that we are going the way of Syria.”
The FB users share and comment on the picture of the school teacher who is dancing on video. Rabiyya Mammadova comments: “ It is OK for a school teacher to bring extra bulletins in her underwear to the polling station, itisOK to beat up the observer, it is OK for her to falsify elections, but it is shameful to dance? Gulsum xanum, do dance and be as positive as you are!!” Ilkin Rustamzade adds on his timeline that apparently the dancing teacher simply rejected participating in falsification of elections, and in addition previously wrote a letter of complaint on violations at school to the president. So this was a set up, when the video of the most beloved by students teacher was spread in the internet. Lets protect our teacher, he appeals.
Mehman Huseynov, the blogger, youth activist, the candidate posts information on his speech at the meeting of the Central Election Commission, which was very critical, and basically was about how he despises all who participated in falsification of these elections, including the chair of the CEC, because they eliminated the country’s future and that people will never forgive them for that” He reveals, that while all the media outlets who were present at the meeting ahs recorded his speech, none of them was released from the building until they all deleted his speech from their cameras.
Isa Gambar of Musavat informs about the continuing hunger strike of a few ex-candidates who ran for the last parliamentary elections protesting the falsified elections. It is been the 4thday of the strike of Elman Guliyev and Eshad Israfilov. Yesterday the ambulance came because of the worsening condition of Elman Guliyev and because of the low pressure wanted to give a glucose injection, which he refused. Long live our heroes, he concludes. The voice of America also reported the strike.
Tofig Yagublu expresses his generally positive attitude to the dialogue, but he considers that the parties should be capable to take high responsibilities and then implement the promises and agreements. However, the suggested dialogue at the level of the head of the department of the presidential administration shows that this is just another cheap game.
Isa Gambar and Nasiman Yagublu of Musavat posted a speech by the founder of the first Azerbaijan Democratic Republic M.E.Rasulzade in exile in Berlin in1933 on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the formation of the Republic of Turkey. M.E. Rasulzade speaks about importance of creation of the republic , as it put as basis the rule of law and equality of all and freedoms , and about influence of its creation on Azerbaijan and the whole region.
Natig Jafarli appeals to the opponents of the dialogue with the government. He comments that in the normal country there are free and fair elections and all dialogues and clash of views is taking place in the parliament, but there is no election, or any other institution. That’s why there should be a dialogue between the governemnta nd opposition, as there are enormous problems which country is facing now. So far, he comments, there were all sorts of meetings behind the closed doors and this is an unfirtuante practice. ” How come, he asks, we have dialogue even with the enemy- Armenia, but cannot have tell our arguments in dialogue with the government?” He suggests, that since there is a political momentum for the peaceful changes in the country, that’s why there should be an open and fair dialogue. And the governemnt’s first step should be amending the NGO law, adopt a new law to give an impetus to restoration of activities of civil society.
Journalists, bloggers and activists share an information about the rally protesting arrest of PFP activist Mammad Ibrahim during the march to the monument of Khojali massacre victims.The observers and participants report police beating up the member of the Khazar branch of the party Konul Ahmadova, whose eye was damaged. Gozel Bayramli called it the revenge of the interior minister Vilayet Eyvazov against the PFP, but she stresses, that all who committed this violence will be hold responsible sooner or later.
Orduxan Babirov, an activist in exile, appeals to the true opposition leaders to eliminate parties, movements etc. and simply come out to the people and lead their struggle. He considers that at this stage division in parties and fractions only mislead people, who are disappointed and do not trust opposition. This appeal he addresses both to the opposition in the country and in exile.
Gullu Jangirova, an activist in exile, writes on her timeline, that she does not understand the politicians who are her FB friends and who speak about dialogue with the government. She stresses that Azerbaijan is not Denmark ( where she lives) so she would say, that the government suggests dialogue to resolve the pressing issues of the country to make it more prosperous. Azerbaijan is an authoritarian state and the president and his team came to power not through free and fair elections, which means that they are not legitimate. What kind of dialogue can it be? By going to the dialogue, you recognize legitimacy of authorties, which is a treason of people. “ I will not follow such politicians. There should bbe only one demand: Resignation!” And yes, not the dialogue, but the DEMAND.”.
Rabiyye Mammadova comments on the issue of dialogue. “ they should meet, and there should be a dialogue, but those considering themselves the opposition leaders cannot do it behind the closed doors”
Altay Geyushov comments with irony on the idea of dialogue with the government: |”I think the government in the dialogue should be represented by Ata Abdullayev ( notorious pro-government figure, who was ridiculed widely in the social networks- L.A). Right now whenever they say “Azerbaijan government” his image emerges before my eyes, and all of them look like him”
Ali Inglabci comments on the results of the voting in PACE which adopted the resolution about political prisoners in Azerbaijan. “ Turkey and Russia are among the countries who voted against this resolution. This is a shame to the Turkic world, that Turkey position coincided with Russian, that there are no political prisoners in Azerbaijan. Are not Agil bey, Orxan bey, Babek bey poitical priosoners?? Down with dictators Assads, Erdogans, Putins and Aliyevs!!
Yadigar Sadykhli reports that while before the access to the library in the Academy of Science cost 5 manats per year , later it was raised to100 manats, and now 150 manats. One should stimulate young people to read, not earn money on this!”
He comments with humour: “ In Iran coronavirus killed the MP, I wonder does it behave ilike that n every country?”
Nurlan Libre comments with irony on the issue of dialogue.”Ilgar Mammadov at least is sincere as he is unlike the “radical National Council of the Democratic forces”, does not conduct the dialogue behind the closed doors. The government goes to dialogue with me too, I am either meeting with a general, who praises me, or with 3-4 colonels, who are putting pressure on me, or task the sergeants to beat me up…And nobody tells me, why do not you simply sit at home and we will pay you 5 thousand manats monthly? Why are you intervening in everything?”
He warns about possibility of deportation of the opposition activist Anar Musayev, who lives in Moscow.Last time when he went home to Azerbaijan, he was detained under administrative charges.
Gubad Ibadoglu reports about the SOFAZ financial activities which it disclosed for 2019. He concludes that this year was successful because of the increased income, but it was mainly due to the increase of the price of oil to 60$. This year, he predicts will be difficult for SOFAZ. He also reports about the meeting of the board of the ADR movement, which he is a leader of. Among the issues which they discussed was the worrisome situation of lack of measures by the Health Ministry in protection of population from coronavirus, about the course of adoption of the medical insurance and the mistakes which were made during its implementation especially in the Northern regions of the country. They suggested immediate announcing if the quarantine, and adoption of the “ 10 steps” which they suggested 4 days ago to defend the population from the virus. They also gave an assessment of the events in Idlib as the provocation by Russia, expressed their condolences in regards Turkish victims of the war, and supported the fight of Turkey with terrorism. Aftrer that the ADR group on Enlightenment ( Education) adopted a new programme and planned events for the upcoming months.
The youth activist Ulvi Hasanli comments on the issue of dialogue: “I do not understand this dialogue game. These are experienced politicians and they again are making the same mistake. We have seen so many of such games and they never resulted in any positive advancement. In addition, while the results of the most shameful elections in our history were being approved, they go to the dialogue behind the closed doors with the people, who ordered the falsification. Dialogue is possible only if the authorities undertake some real steps. And the dialogue, if it takes place, should be open, so everybody’s position and demands would be known.”
March 3, 2020