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Center for National and International Studies




FB users continue to discuss  government relations with REAL and other opposition parties, the compensation to two members of REAL, statement by the leader of the Intelligentsia Movement Eldaniz Guliyev, social- economic issues caused by coronavirus isolation measures, division in the society, conflict between Sevinc Osmangizi and Altay Geyushov and their supporters and other.

Isa Gambar, the president of the National Center for Strategic Studies of Musavat party announces the virtual meeting of the Center on the 28th April devoted to the recognition of the attack on the 27-28 April 1920 on Azerbaijan Democratic Republic by the 11 -Red -Army of Russia as the occupation of the independent subject of the international law by Russia.” He comments that in spite of 29 years since the adoption of the Act on Independence and 100 years since Russian occupation there is still a necessity to remind this reality to those who do not understand it completely.  The topic of the conference: 100 years of occupation: Does the threat continue to exist?

Natig Jafarli reacts to the statements of some public leaders making a parallel to the developments in the US, caused by the Trump’s advise to start disinfectant injections. He quotes one of the members of the Democratic Party, who allegedly said, that let those people, who were naïve and primitive enough to believe in such an advise – die, so the society will get rid of their uneducated part. He suggests the same principle be applied to the national public leaders who claim themselves intelligentsia and have been deceiving people for years, but the worse is that they were believed. First, he says, he tried to influence their opinion – that of supporters, but then decided – if they choose to support these Neanderthals – why should we react to their ideas? They will go away to the history archives together with their leaders”.

Ilkin Rustamzade of NIDA reacted to the statement by Eldaniz Guliyev the leader of the Intelligentsia Movement  as one by the “ill bred” and who damages the reputation of the organization struggling for democracy.  Nobody has a right to interfere in sexual orientation of Ismayil Jalilov, but from outside his attitude to the Popular Front Party does look biased. Hope he will take it into account. Nowadays the government renewed its attacks against Popular Front Party. Using the issue of Eldaniz Guliyev as an excuse to hit PFP is simply immoral”

Natig Jafarli comments on the FB readers who apologized for sharing fake news – that Ismayil Jalilov allegedly broadcasted the Talysh calls for separatism, by urging them to take an advantage of the technology and double check the information there are sharing. “ Lets not turn the internet into the kolkhoz market” concludes Jafarli.

Ordukhan Babirov, an activist in exile exclaims: “ I repeat: there is no politics in Azerbaijan! There is a dynasty of Ali-Pashayev’s , who catch whoever they want sit on their back and ride any direction their want”

“ There should be solidarity among Azerbaijani people to save themselves from the dynastic regime. It is stupid to share the skin of the live bear”

Gullu Jangirova, an activist in exile writes: “ My dear allies, dear members of the Popular Front! It is already few times I observed that when your rating is rising among people, the pocket opposition comes out. I beg you, do not pay attention and do not spend your energy on them. We have one goal- and that is regime of Aliyev. We have one purpose- to save people from this regime, and build democracy in Azerbaijan, and bring back people’s trust in themselves. Those, who are speaking against us now- are those who do not like these goals. They have been given order. But they should know that they will never reach their goals however hard they try. That’s why lets continue our struggle- our people support us! “

Bakhtiyar Hajiyev comments on the situation in the US and how all media and politicians are convincing population not to follow the advise the president to have injections of disinfectant.

Ramis Yunus, a commentator and activist in exile, expresses his solidarity with and care of arrested Tofig Yagublu. Take care of yourself, my brother Tofig bey and be strong! You are the conscience of the Azerbaijani people!”

Zohrab Ismayil considers that social-political community of the country is confusing  few things:

  1. Stubbornness with principled position.
  2. Annoyance with the criticism
  3. Argument with struggle

He also attracts attention that 3-5 thousand people- citizens of Azerbaijan- cannot enter the country from Russia. It is not a big deal he comments for Azerbaijan to set a camp for the returning by the border, but it keeps them on the other side in Dagestan , where people are forces to sleep in the streets.

Rabiyya Mammadova campaigns for restoration of Khalid Baghirov in the National Bar Association.

Gubad Ibadoglu shares the photo of the feast of the newly released from prison notorious criminal – former high level employee of the Ministry of National SecurityAkif Chovdarov with his friends and comments/” It looks like they do it deliberately to shock people, who has been struggling to get 190 manat of compensation, they place their photo having a dinner with the cost of 1190 manat so it would be written in the glorious history of the country”

He also suggests to distribute 250 manat per person as a state aid for the population, mentioning that it will result in loss of only 3,5% of the SOFAZ assets. By the 1 st of April 2020 these assets were 70 bln 210 mln manat. This amount divided between the population will make 7 thousand manat per person. But there is no need to distribute everything, so it can be 10%  – 700 manat, or 5% – 350 manat. However, he suggests only 3,5 % of assets to be distributed in the amount of the official minimum salary, as this will be both a just distribution of an aid, but also people will feel that there are resources in their country. The government should do it as soon as possible, because the assets are losing its value day by day, and in three months SOFAZ will lose much more. He suggests to start a campaign on signing such a petition.

The activists remind and share the information that it has been the 13 day since the authorities imposed on Ali Karimli and his family  the communication blockade.

Seymur Hezi writes: Dear compatriots, its been 13 days of blockade. What did Aliyev lose and what did he earn? The only advantage of Aliyev was that Ali Karimli did not have an access to the life broadcasting.” But overall he considers that the loser was Aliyev, as people got a clear idea, that Ali Karimli was put in communication blockade because 1) he urged distribution of medical supplies in the framework of fight with coronavirus 2) to distribute 300 manats to everyone, who could not work due to quarantine 3) to freeze all credit payments for 3 months including the period of quarantine 4)to stop unjustified fines of the population.

Hikmet Hajizade appeals to the society to stop arguing with each other.”Wake up, democrats! Wake up and stop biting each other!”

FB community shares the new composition of the Azerbaijani delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Khadija Ismayil comments:” Fake elections, fake MPs, fake meetings”

Nurlan Libre reports that the legal defender Elchin Sadyghov was not allowed to meet with the defendant imprisoned activist Alizamin Salayev, in spte he had s stamped order by him. They have been mentioning various excuses and still did not let him to see Salayev. This way they interfered in his right of seeing his defendant. And realizing his professional duty.He filed a complaint to the Penitentiary Service and the Office of Ombudsman.

Nurlan Libre also reminds that today was the day of commemoration of the third year since the death of the journalist Mehman Galandarov, who was killed in prison. He comments that it was the 5th journalist killed during the office of Ilham Aliyev. The criminal case regarding death of Galandarov was opened in the Sabunchu branch of prosecutors office  based on 125 article  of the criminal Code.But Baku office of the prosecutor’s closed the case due to the absence of the criminal substance in the case.

Nurlan Libre quotes statement by  MP from REAL Erkin Gadirli, that “keeping Ali Karimli in communication blockade is unjust”.

Gubad Ibadoglu started campaign “250 manats to every citizen” and asks people to believe that it may give results, similar to the other previous ones such as “ Do not let virus to schools”. “Stop the metro” “ Apply to unemployment benefits”” Lets close the tax ID”

Yadigar Sadyghli of Musavat writes on his timeline about 100 anniversary of the occupation of Azerbaijan Republic by Bolsheviks. Thus was put an end to the Azerbaijani Republic – the most glorious pages of people’s history, and the nation was deprived of right of self-determination. Tens of thousands were killed during 20 years of repressions, while others died before they managed to get back home. He posts the article which he wrote about Musavatists resisting in Soviet death camps and devotes it to all the victims of the Bolshevik terror.

Similarly Ilkin Rustamzade comments: “100 years ago masked as Bolsheviks Russian neocolonialists occupied Azerbaijan Democratic Republic. For 70 years they have stolen our republic and our freedom. They have given us repressions, hunger and sufferings, and has taken our resources and freedoms instead. We remember the communist traitors of their motherland, who later were killed by the machine, created by themselves, with hatred.”

Nigar Hezi expresses concern for her imprisoned father; “Tofig Yagublu has been unjustly in prison already for more than a month. I know about quarantine and I am not going to violate the rule. But he has been in the same clothes all this time. We cannot take there either necessary items or clothes. They said that the prisoners are provided for everything they need, and how can one trust these statements after that? How can they call it “provided”, if the prisoner buys everything there. How can a person wear the same clothes for more than a month especially at the times when hygiene is so important.  We are very concerned for his health. We cannot take even the medicine he needs. Should we complain to the court that they do not allow to pass my father’s clothes?

Seymur Hezi posts a celebratory message to deputy chair of PFP Gozel Bayramli on occasion of her birthday. He characterizes her, as the one who defeated the experts of the government in public debates, who spent tow years of her life in prison, was the participant of the liberation movement – this is life of a few braves! I wish there were more women like yourself. Happy Bithrday, dear Gozel khanim!

Ramis Yunus writes that because the intellectual level of Aliyev-Pashyev government is low, as usual instead of  resolving social issues emerging this time due to pandemic, they pay attention to strengthening of the police regime. Decision to open SMEs from the 27th April is a crime comparable only with the penalty battalions during the WW2 with one difference that this time they use as the cannon fodder the poor layers of the Azerbaijani society , who without the state aid, are forced to start working.

The FB users share appeal signed by the political and public leaders protesting imposition ( 14 days) of the communication blockade on Ali Karimli.

Altay Geyushov became the center of the public debates due to  clashing with the Sevinj Osmangizi ( the TV commentator). He comments, that all what has happened to Ismayil Jalilov in these two days, proved all our warnings.

He makes a parallel between the government and the opposition “crowd”, which is in opposition to Aliyev, but not the system, because they use the same arguments against the opponents.  ( the issue of grants, condemnations, discrediting, being pro-Armenian and other arguments) On the other hand, he  suggests that the first issue – the statement by Eldaniz Guliyev proves that so called liberal democratic opposition is not actually a bearer of these values. He calls Sevinj Osmangizi “narrow-minded” and expresses hope that she will use her TV for the good cause. The second story which happened to Ismayil Jaliov is a proof that both – are using the same methods of falsification. The fake case against Tofig Yagublu opened by the government does not differ from the fake profile opened on the name of Jalilov  and sending fake message about Talysh separatists. That’s why they receive the released from prison former health minister Ali Insanov with open arms. All above mentioned means that feudal Aliyev will be replaced by another feudal.

Natig Jafarli comment on the economic losses caused by pandemic quarantine.

Bakhityar Hajiyev comments on two issues – how the banks’ problem was handled, and on appointment of his rival at the falsified elections the member of the PACE delegation. He informs, that today the Central Bank appointed administrators to 4 banks, where they started inspections, their ATM machines were closed, the activities stopped. He strongly criticises this step being taken during the quarantine, which means that the bank customers are left without money in the most difficult period. Moreover, the information was published, which caused panic among population, so people would rush to withdraw their money and put them under the pillow. Thousand people, who worked in the banks lost jobs in the period when people could hardly register at the site for the unemployed, which failed the second day of its launching.

Natig Jafarli also touches upon the situation with banks He mentions that in all 4 banks– “ATAbank”, “AG bank”, “NBC bank” and  “Amrah Bank” there were problems for a long time, while lately people even could not get their deposits back. Removing  “rotten” banks from the market is a delayed process, and should have been done earlier. The temporary administrators are appointed when the banks lose their paying capacity and in 30 days these administrators should complete their closure. But while to return deposits of 4 banks to customers costs 800 mln manat. the capital of the Saving Insurance Fund is close to zero. This means that Central Bank will open the credit line for the Fund, but will hardly get its money back. He concludes that the government always delays important decisions and as a result its losses are much greater.

Bakhtiyar Hajiyev further comments that sending Nigar Arpadarai who was appointed as a result of falsified elections an MP from the same constituency where he ran as a candidate, as part of the delegation to PACE – is burying the Azerbaijani people and social opinion. Let it be, he writes. “Every time, myself and my friends from France when the delegation visits Strasbourg will arrange them a special welcome vigil there. There might be so, that I even move to France and start my NGO, so to remind Nigar and others alike what is their true face. If you ignore the public opinion – we will give you a respective response. If you want to fight- there will be fight!”

He also reports that last year he along with other foreign colleagues prepared a report on possible scenarios for the Eastern Partnership states in 10 years. One of the scenarios he quotes is that people lose hope and trust  in reforms, the economic situation worsens, unemployment rises, the dissatisfied crowd comes out to the streets, president escapes to Moscow etc.

Natig Jafarli also considers that  the losses of economy of Azerbaijan are much greater than it is declared by the minister of economy and reaches 5, 3 bln manat.This is not the losses of the government or the budget, but economy, because the added value is not produced, service and trade sectors are weakening, which means that GDP significantly decreases. Last year GDP was 81 bln manats, while this year due to quarantine we lost already 6 bln. He also adds the factor of the decline of the oil price, and that exit from quarantine will be step-by step one.But the problem is not pandemic or oil price-these are consequences. The root cause is the primitive economic system, bureaucratic economy, non-competitive environment and unjust courts.

April 28, 2020

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